A (Grim) History of Hollowing Out Our Home
The understanding of biodiversity as a planetary boundary has developed considerably over recent decades. Scientists have progressively recognized that biological diversity represents not merely an environmental concern but a fundamental limit to human activities. This recognition began with the Stockholm Resilience Centre’s introduction of the planetary boundaries framework, which identified biodiversity (or biosphere integrity) as one of nine critical Earth system processes that maintain planetary stability1.
During this period of increasing awareness, biodiversity loss accelerated dramatically with industrialization and has continued to worsen. Evidence shows that from 1992 to 2014, there was an approximately 40% decline in natural capital value per person globally2. This alarming trend prompted growing scientific attention, which culminated in frameworks such as the Global Safety Net that maps comprehensive biodiversity elements requiring protection3. In the midst of this scientific development, the recognition of biodiversity’s economic value gained prominence with the 2021 Dasgupta Review, which proposed methodologies for including the intrinsic value of nature as an economic asset2.
The State of the Ark
The present condition of biodiversity loss paints a troubling picture for global ecosystems. We have already crossed the planetary boundary for biosphere integrity41, with current extinction rates reaching more than 100 extinctions per million species-years—at least ten times higher than the safe boundary of 10 extinctions per million species-years1. Within this context, scientists estimate that of approximately 8 million species on Earth, around one in eight faces the threat of extinction4.
Human activities drive these unprecedented effects on biodiversity through five main environmental pressures: habitat loss and degradation, invasive species, overexploitation, pollution, and climate change56. At the forefront of these drivers, habitat loss (particularly from converting natural areas to urban and agricultural uses) and invasive species are considered the primary forces, though all five interact to accelerate biodiversity decline5.
Agriculture emerges as the dominant driver of biodiversity collapse, with intensifying pressure expected as the global population grows under changing climate conditions7. The consequences of these pressures are apparent across ecosystems, as they distinctly shift community composition and decrease local diversity throughout terrestrial, freshwater, and marine environments6.
The economic implications of this decline are substantial, with the impact of biodiversity loss estimated at US$10 trillion annually, including healthcare costs and agricultural losses8. To illustrate this economic dimension, declining bee populations threaten crops worth over US$235 billion annually, posing serious risks to global food security and nutrition8.
The Cascading Countdown: What Happens Next
The trajectory of biodiversity loss points toward accelerating decline without significant intervention. The IPBES global assessment report projects a loss of one million species over the coming decades2. Beyond these direct losses, cascading effects will ripple across ecosystems and human societies.
As we move deeper into the 21st century, climate change is expected to become a primary driver of biodiversity loss5. The interactions between climate change and biosphere integrity planetary boundaries suggest that transgressing one can lead to more steeply increasing risk in the other1. This relationship creates a dangerous feedback loop where climate change accelerates biodiversity loss, which in turn weakens carbon sequestration capabilities, thereby further exacerbating climate change.
The human health dimension of biodiversity loss will become increasingly significant through multiple pathways. As ecological systems continue to be disrupted, the risk of future pandemics increases9. Concurrent with this disease risk, declining ecosystem services like clean air, water, and food production will affect human wellbeing at unprecedented scales810.
Challenges on the Path to Recovery
Addressing biodiversity loss presents several interconnected challenges that complicate conservation efforts. The valuation of ecosystem services remains exceedingly difficult, creating obstacles for economic policy. For instance, calculating the significance of pollination services involves complex questions about mechanical alternatives, crop dependencies, and broader ecosystem impacts2. This valuation difficulty often leads to underestimation of biodiversity’s true worth.
The pressure to feed a growing population creates tension between agricultural expansion and habitat conservation needs7. Within this agricultural context, the critical role of agricultural landscapes’ management in halting biodiversity loss remains largely unexplored at global scales7. This knowledge gap hinders effective policy development that could balance food production with conservation.
Decision-making processes frequently prioritize economic development over biodiversity conservation, creating policy tensions between immediate human needs and long-term ecological preservation2. This prioritization reflects broader systemic issues in how we value short-term economic gains versus long-term ecological stability.
The multifaceted nature of biodiversity threats further complicates solutions, as the five drivers of biodiversity loss interact in complex ways, making isolated interventions ineffective. Fragmented ecosystems become less resilient and more vulnerable to invasive species, creating cascading effects that accelerate biodiversity decline5. These interactions require holistic approaches rather than single-issue solutions.
Despite extensive research, generalizations on the dimensions and extent of human impacts on biodiversity remain ambiguous, with mixed views persisting on the trajectory of biodiversity at local scales6. These knowledge gaps impede development of targeted conservation strategies that could effectively address biodiversity loss.
How to Mend the Web
Despite these significant challenges, promising opportunities exist to address biodiversity loss. The expansion of protected areas offers substantial biodiversity and climate benefits. Current protected areas store between 12% and 16% of land carbon stocks, and increasing coverage to 50.4% of the terrestrial realm could substantially reduce extinction risk while enhancing carbon storage113. This dual benefit highlights the potential synergies between biodiversity conservation and climate action.
Connectivity between protected areas provides another important opportunity through ecological corridors that can enhance conservation effectiveness while storing similar carbon densities to the protected areas they connect11. These corridors would require only 4.3% of additional land area but could dramatically improve ecosystem resilience3, demonstrating efficient land use for conservation gains.
The economic domain offers transformation potential through the concept of a “biodiversity economy” that values nature’s contributions and integrates conservation with development. Including parameters such as resources extracted, ecosystem services, climate impacts, and habitat conditions in GDP calculations could fundamentally transform economic incentives2. This valuation shift would align economic systems with ecological realities.
Agricultural innovation presents opportunities through systems with clear boundaries for biodiversity impacts that could minimize negative consequences while maintaining food production. Such boundaries would address land-use change, water withdrawal, pesticide pollution, nutrient pollution, and landscape simplification7. These agricultural approaches would reconcile food security needs with biodiversity conservation.
Conservation success increasingly recognizes the importance of indigenous knowledge and local community participation. The Global Safety Net approach emphasizes keeping people on the land, particularly indigenous peoples, to achieve conservation outcomes3. This inclusive approach enhances both social justice and conservation effectiveness.
Biodiversity’s Role in a Safe and Just Space
Biodiversity loss exemplifies the central premise of Doughnut Economics—that exceeding planetary boundaries undermines the social foundation necessary for human wellbeing. The doughnut model visualizes a safe and just space between social needs and ecological limits2.
When biodiversity loss exceeds its boundary (as it currently does), it directly impacts multiple social foundation elements. Biodiversity underpins food production through pollination, soil fertility, and genetic diversity, and its loss threatens food security and nutrition globally89. Ecosystem disruption increases disease risk and reduces access to medicinal resources, while the decline in ecosystem services like clean water affects human health directly810. The economic impacts of biodiversity loss ripple through sectors like agriculture, fisheries, and healthcare, affecting livelihoods and economic security8. The degradation of wetlands, which filter freshwater, has led to a 35% decline in global wetland coverage since 1970, increasing waterborne diseases and reducing water availability8.
The doughnut framework reveals how biodiversity conservation simultaneously addresses multiple Sustainable Development Goals: Life on Land (SDG 15), Life Below Water (SDG 14), Climate Action (SDG 13), Zero Hunger (SDG 2), Good Health and Well-being (SDG 3), and Clean Water and Sanitation (SDG 6). The interconnectedness highlighted by the doughnut model shows that biodiversity’s role in supporting a safe operating space for humanity primarily lies in its interactions with other boundaries1. This systems perspective underscores the need for integrated approaches that recognize ecological interconnections.
Why Acting Now is the Only Option
Biodiversity loss represents one of the most severely transgressed planetary boundaries, with far-reaching consequences for ecological stability and human wellbeing. The evidence demonstrates that current extinction rates vastly exceed safe levels, driven primarily by habitat destruction, invasive species, overexploitation, pollution, and climate change.
Through the Doughnut Economics framework, we can understand how biodiversity loss undermines the social foundations essential for human flourishing. The economic impacts alone—estimated at US$10 trillion annually—highlight the material consequences of exceeding this planetary boundary. Biodiversity loss threatens food security, human health, water systems, and climate stability.
The research reveals critical knowledge gaps, particularly in understanding local biodiversity trajectories, valuing ecosystem services, and developing effective agricultural systems that support biodiversity. Promising opportunities exist in expanding protected areas, establishing ecological corridors, developing biodiversity economies, setting agricultural boundaries, and engaging local communities.
Moving forward requires recognizing biodiversity not as an isolated environmental issue but as a fundamental boundary that, when crossed, jeopardizes the safe and just space for humanity envisioned in Doughnut Economics. Reversing biodiversity loss demands transformative changes across economic, agricultural, and conservation systems, guided by a holistic understanding of ecological interconnections and their relationship to human wellbeing.