From Absence of War to Foundations of Wellbeing
The concept of peace within global frameworks has evolved significantly over decades. Initially narrowly defined as the “absence of war” in traditional UN approaches, peace has progressively expanded to encompass positive attributes of social harmony, justice, and human security12. The Brundtland Report in 1987 marked a pivotal expansion, integrating conflict prevention as a key sustainability consideration.
The formal recognition of peace and justice as essential elements of sustainable development culminated in the 2015 adoption of UN Sustainable Development Goal 16 (Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions)3. This represented a “groundbreaking achievement” after decades of evolving understanding that sustainability requires not just environmental and economic considerations but also peaceful, just societies with effective institutions34.
Kate Raworth’s Doughnut Economics model, first introduced in 2012, incorporated this evolved understanding by explicitly including peace and justice as one of the twelve social foundations that form the inner boundary of the “safe and just space for humanity”45. This positioning reflects the recognition that without peace and justice, humans cannot thrive, regardless of ecological conditions.
Measuring and Mapping Global Peace and Justice
Frameworks for Assessing Peace and Justice
Two primary frameworks measure global peace and justice: the Global Peace Index (GPI) and the World Justice Project (WJP) Rule of Law Index.
The Global Peace Index, produced by the Institute for Economics & Peace, ranks 163 countries according to their peacefulness using 23 indicators across three domains: ongoing conflict, societal safety and security, and militarization61. A higher GPI score indicates lower peace levels.
The World Justice Project Rule of Law Index measures justice through eight factors: constraints on government powers, absence of corruption, order and security, fundamental rights, open government, regulatory enforcement, civil justice, and criminal justice3.
Declining Peace and Rule of Law in a Turbulent World
Recent data presents concerning trends. The 2023 Global Peace Index reveals the average level of global peacefulness deteriorated for the ninth consecutive year, with 79 countries recording deteriorations while 84 improved16. However, the deteriorations were larger than the improvements, indicating an overall negative trend.
Deaths from global conflict increased by 96% to 238,000 in 2022, eclipsing the previous global peak during the Syrian war1. The global economic impact of violence increased by 17% to $17.5 trillion in 2022, equivalent to a significant portion of global GDP1.
The most peaceful countries consistently include Iceland, New Zealand, Ireland, Denmark, and Austria, while the least peaceful include Afghanistan, Yemen, Syria, South Sudan, and Ukraine61. This distribution reveals stark global inequalities in peace and justice.
The Rule of Law Index similarly shows a continued global decline in rule of law, with civil justice systems weakening in 66% of countries between 2022-20233. Government checks, fundamental rights, and criminal justice systems deteriorated in 56% of countries during the same period3.
Interconnections and Interdependencies
In the Doughnut Economics model, peace and justice constitutes one of the twelve social foundations (inner ring) alongside water, food, health, education, income and work, political voice, social equity, gender equality, housing, networks, and energy54. This inner ring represents the minimum standards required for human dignity and wellbeing.
Peace and justice within this framework connects directly to SDG 16 (Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions)34. The UN emphasizes that SDG 16 functions as an “enabler and accelerator” for all other SDGs, creating interconnections across the sustainable development agenda. Communities with peace and justice can more effectively engage in sustainable development activities, creating virtuous cycles of improvement3.
Research confirms this interconnectedness, showing that SDGs function as a network rather than isolated objectives4. Improvements in peace and justice create positive “ripple effects” across other social foundations and development goals. Systems thinking helps visualize these connections through overlapping causal relationships4.
Practical Applications of Doughnut Economics for Peace and Justice
Cities have emerged as important laboratories for implementing Doughnut Economics principles, including its peace and justice dimensions.
Amsterdam provides a leading example, having adopted Doughnut Economics for its post-COVID economic recovery78. The city collaborated with the Doughnut Economics Action Lab (DEAL) to create the “Amsterdam City Portrait,” which analyzes city life through four lenses: social, ecological, local, and global8. Amsterdam measures peace and justice through indicators like crime victimization rates (25% in 2017), domestic violence prevalence (3%), voter participation (52% for city elections), experiences of discrimination (15% of residents), and feelings of control over one’s life (16% in lower-income neighborhoods lack control)7.
Lviv Municipality in Ukraine has also implemented the model, explicitly identifying “Peace and Justice” as a key sector in their Northern District development using Doughnut methodology7. This application is particularly significant given Ukraine’s conflict context.
These urban implementations demonstrate practical approaches to strengthening peace and justice within the “safe and just space” of the Doughnut model. They emphasize citizen participation, community networks, and addressing structural inequalities as pathways to more peaceful and just societies78.
Climate Change, Scarcity, and the Future of Conflict
Escalating Tensions in a Warming World
Research projects significant challenges for peace and justice within planetary boundaries. Climate change threatens to intensify resource competition and conflict risks, particularly over water resources92. Seven of the world’s greatest rivers, fed by glaciers in the Himalayas and the Tibetan plateau, supply water to roughly 40% of the world’s population, yet their declining flow creates tensions between countries competing for diminishing resources9.
Climate impacts disproportionately affect vulnerable populations, including the poor, indigenous peoples, displaced persons, women, children, and the elderly9. This unequal vulnerability exacerbates existing inequalities and creates humanitarian and security challenges that undermine progress toward sustainable development goals.
Planetary Boundaries and Justice Considerations
Projections to 2050 indicate that the “safe and just corridor within earth system boundaries” is shrinking, primarily due to growing socioeconomic inequalities10. By 2040, planetary boundaries will remain under strong pressure, with only some SDGs potentially achieved by 2030, but often at the cost of exceeding ecological limits102.
Researchers have differentiated between “safe boundaries” and “just boundaries,” with justice considerations making boundaries stricter. For instance, while a 1.5°C climate warming limit might be “safe” from a purely ecological perspective, ensuring justice for vulnerable populations might require a stricter 1°C limit1011.
Pathways to Sustainable Peace and Justice
Despite these challenges, several promising approaches offer pathways to lasting peace and justice within planetary boundaries.
Cultivating Cooperation through Shared Resources
Environmental peacebuilding leverages environmental challenges and interdependencies to create opportunities for proactive peacemaking212. This approach recognizes that environmental problems ignore social boundaries constructed around conflicts and demand joint action for effective resolution.
Successful examples include the “peace parks” between Rwanda, Uganda, and the Democratic Republic of Congo protecting mountain gorilla habitats, the Sava River transboundary water cooperation between former Yugoslavia countries, and EcoPeace’s three-decade environmental peacebuilding work in the Middle East12.
These initiatives aim to achieve several transformations: identifying mutual gains from environmental action, softening exclusionary identities, strengthening trust through cooperative learning, building social networks across conflict boundaries, and reducing tensions through stakeholder dialogue and enhanced livelihoods12.
Building Equitable and Sustainable Futures
The concept of Earth system justice provides a framework for integrating ecological boundaries with justice considerations11. It encompasses three dimensions: interspecies justice (rejecting human exceptionalism), intergenerational justice (between current and future generations), and intragenerational justice (between countries, communities, and individuals)112.
This framework aims to minimize harm from Earth system change while ensuring equitable resource access through reallocation of resources, responsibilities, and risks11. It addresses peace and justice by challenging inequalities and power imbalances that often drive conflicts, providing pathways to stay within ecological limits while promoting justice.
Cooperative governance approaches transition from risk cascades to positive synergies between sustainable development and peace2. Rather than competing for scarce resources, countries can collaborate on sustainable technologies, circular economy implementation, and global rules that reconcile economic development with planetary boundaries2.
A Choice, Not a Destiny: Charting a Course Towards Lasting Peace and Justice
Will humanity ever find lasting peace and justice? The evidence presents a mixed picture, requiring a nuanced assessment.
The current trajectory is concerning. Global peace has declined for nine consecutive years, with increasing conflict deaths and economic costs of violence. Climate change and resource scarcity threaten to intensify conflicts, particularly in vulnerable regions. The “safe and just space” within Doughnut Economics appears to be shrinking rather than expanding.
Yet promising developments offer hope. The formal recognition of peace and justice as essential to sustainable development through SDG 16 represents significant progress. City-level implementations of Doughnut Economics demonstrate practical pathways to more peaceful and just societies. Environmental peacebuilding initiatives have successfully transformed conflicts in several regions.
Achieving lasting peace and justice will require transformative changes to address growing inequalities, ensure just resource distribution, and build cooperative governance systems that can manage environmental challenges without conflict. The Doughnut Economics framework, with its integration of social foundations and planetary boundaries, provides a valuable conceptual tool for navigating this complex challenge.
The answer to whether humanity will ever find lasting peace and justice depends not on inevitable trends but on our collective choices. The path exists, but walking it requires commitment to both ecological sustainability and social justice as inseparable goals.